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6 Dec 2026-7:00 am
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
44%
21%
35%
Machida Zelvia 44%
Draw 21%
Fagiano Okayama 35%
2.0 – 1.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-1
8% chance
Most Likely Score
74%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
73%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Machida Zelvia · at home
OKA · away
2.00
Goals scored per game
1.40
1.75
Goals conceded per game
1.60
1.28x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.04x
1.30x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.02x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Kyoto Sanga (A) 0-1 · 10 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Avispa Fukuoka (A) 2-1 · 10 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
L
D
W
W
W
L
D
W
W
D
W
W
W
2.22
6-2-1
PPG Overall
1.75
2-1-1
PPG at Home
2.60
4-1-0
PPG Away
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
D
W
L
1.44
4-1-4
PPG Overall
1.75
2-1-1
PPG at Home
1.20
2-0-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Machida Zelvia at home +46% on points per game vs Fagiano Okayama away (1.75 vs 1.20)
Rest & Schedule
57
days rest
Kyoto Sanga 0-1 Machida Zelvia
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
57
days rest
Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
4
5
Win %
67%
50%
80%
Goals per game
3.56
3.75
3.40
Scored
2.44
2.00
2.80
Conceded
1.11
1.75
0.60
Both teams scored
78%
100%
60%
Clean sheets
22%
0%
40%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
4
5
Win %
44%
50%
40%
Goals per game
2.67
2.25
3.00
Scored
1.33
1.25
1.40
Conceded
1.33
1.00
1.60
Both teams scored
78%
50%
100%
Clean sheets
22%
50%
0%
Failed to score
11%
25%
0%
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Machida Zelvia
MAC
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 9/9
89% 8/9
94%
–
Over 1.5
89% 8/9
78% 7/9
83%
79%
Over 2.5
67% 6/9
78% 7/9
72%
53%
Over 3.5
56% 5/9
11% 1/9
33%
31%
Over 4.5
22% 2/9
11% 1/9
17%
–
Under 2.5
33% 3/9
22% 2/9
28%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
78% 7/9
78% 7/9
78%
59%
BTTS & win
44% 4/9
33% 3/9
39%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
56% 5/9
78% 7/9
67%
–
Machida Zelvia
MAC
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 7/9
78% 7/9
78%
–
Over 1.5
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
56%
–
Over 2.5
11% 1/9
22% 2/9
17%
–
BTTS
33% 3/9
67% 6/9
50%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.00 at home
1.40 away
Machida Zelvia scored 8 in 4 home games
Fagiano Okayama scored 7 in 5 away games
Machida Zelvia
MAC
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Scored over 0.5
100% 9/9
89% 8/9
Scored over 1.5
67% 6/9
33% 3/9
Scored over 2.5
44% 4/9
11% 1/9
Failed to score
0% 0/9
11% 1/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.75 at home
1.60 away
Machida Zelvia conceded 7 in 4 home games
Fagiano Okayama conceded 8 in 5 away games
Machida Zelvia
MAC
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Conceded over 0.5
78% 7/9
78% 7/9
Conceded over 1.5
11% 1/9
56% 5/9
Conceded over 2.5
11% 1/9
0% 0/9
Clean sheets
22% 2/9
22% 2/9
Streaks
1
Won last game
9
Scored all 9 this season
3
Longest win run this season
2
Lost in a row
6
Scored in a row
6
Conceded in a row
6
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Machida Zelvia
MAC
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.44
5.89
–
Corners conceded
4.00
3.78
–
Match total
8.44
9.67
9.11
Over 8.5
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
33% 3/9
56% 5/9
–
Over 10.5
22% 2/9
33% 3/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.00
1.78
–
Opponent cards
1.44
1.67
–
Match total
2.44
3.44
2.91
Over 3.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
–
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
–
Shots
Shots
13.67
14.22
–
Opponent shots
14.00
10.56
–
Match total
27.67
24.78
26.86
Shots on target
On target
5.11
3.22
–
Opponent on target
3.67
3.00
–
Match total
8.78
6.22
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.22
12.11
–
Opponent fouls
12.22
10.89
–
Match total
22.44
23.00
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.89
2.25
–
Opponent offsides
1.78
2.63
–
Match total
3.67
4.88
–
Possession
All games
49%
44%
–
Home games
44%
40%
–
Away games
53%
47%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Machida Zelvia
Scored · 22
4%
9%
23%
9%
23%
32%
Conceded · 10
20%
10%
10%
40%
10%
10%
Fagiano Okayama
Scored · 12
17%
17%
25%
17%
8%
16%
Conceded · 12
17%
25%
25%
0%
8%
25%
56%
Scored first
75%
32%
Goals after 75'
17%
Scored first: Machida Zelvia 5 of 9, Fagiano Okayama 6 of 8 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
44%44%11%
Leading 4
Level 4
Trailing 1
1.78
points per game
At half-time
75%
3 of 4
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 14
At half-time
11%67%22%
Leading 1
Level 6
Trailing 2
1.00
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 2
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 5
8
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 4 games
0
3
Points dropped from winning positions in 7 · 6 games
6
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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