days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
45%
26%
29%
Gamba Osaka 45%
Draw 26%
V-varen Nagasaki 29%
1.4 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
12% chance
Most Likely Score
47%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
GOS · at home
NAG · away
1.00
Goals scored per game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded per game
2.25
0.64x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.74x
1.12x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.44x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Newcastle Jets (A) 1-3 · 13 Oct 2026
Substitutes
31
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs JEF United Chiba (A) 1-1 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
L
L
D
L
L
L
L
D
D
L
D
W
0.67
1-3-5
PPG Overall
1.00
1-1-2
PPG at Home
0.40
0-2-3
PPG Away
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
L
L
L
W
1.00
2-3-4
PPG Overall
1.60
2-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Gamba Osaka at home +300% on points per game vs V-varen Nagasaki away (1.00 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
151
days rest
Newcastle Jets 1-3 Gamba Osaka
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
153
days rest
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
4
5
Win %
11%
25%
0%
Goals per game
2.67
2.50
2.80
Scored
0.89
1.00
0.80
Conceded
1.78
1.50
2.00
Both teams scored
44%
25%
60%
Clean sheets
11%
25%
0%
Failed to score
56%
75%
40%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
22%
40%
0%
Goals per game
3.00
2.80
3.25
Scored
1.22
1.40
1.00
Conceded
1.78
1.40
2.25
Both teams scored
67%
60%
75%
Clean sheets
11%
20%
0%
Failed to score
22%
20%
25%
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Gamba Osaka
GOS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
89% 8/9
100% 9/9
94%
–
Over 1.5
78% 7/9
89% 8/9
83%
79%
Over 2.5
33% 3/9
56% 5/9
44%
53%
Over 3.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
33%
31%
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
11%
–
Under 2.5
67% 6/9
44% 4/9
56%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
56%
59%
BTTS & win
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
11%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
33% 3/9
44% 4/9
39%
–
Gamba Osaka
GOS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
67% 6/9
78% 7/9
72%
–
Over 1.5
22% 2/9
33% 3/9
28%
–
Over 2.5
11% 1/9
0% 0/9
6%
–
BTTS
22% 2/9
0% 0/9
11%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.00 away
Gamba Osaka scored 4 in 4 home games
V-varen Nagasaki scored 4 in 4 away games
Gamba Osaka
GOS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Scored over 0.5
44% 4/9
78% 7/9
Scored over 1.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
Scored over 2.5
11% 1/9
0% 0/9
Failed to score
56% 5/9
22% 2/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.50 at home
2.25 away
Gamba Osaka conceded 6 in 4 home games
V-varen Nagasaki conceded 9 in 4 away games
Gamba Osaka
GOS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Conceded over 0.5
89% 8/9
89% 8/9
Conceded over 1.5
67% 6/9
44% 4/9
Conceded over 2.5
22% 2/9
33% 3/9
Clean sheets
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
Streaks
8
Without a win last win 9 games ago
5
Conceded in a row
4
Failed to score in a row
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
5
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
Match Totals
Gamba Osaka
GOS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
League
Corners
Corners won
4.78
4.11
–
Corners conceded
6.22
4.89
–
Match total
11.00
9.00
9.11
Over 8.5
67% 6/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
67% 6/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 10.5
56% 5/9
33% 3/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.11
1.33
–
Opponent cards
1.89
1.33
–
Match total
3.00
2.67
2.91
Over 3.5
22% 2/9
22% 2/9
–
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
–
Shots
Shots
13.89
11.33
–
Opponent shots
16.67
14.78
–
Match total
30.56
26.11
26.86
Shots on target
On target
4.22
3.67
–
Opponent on target
5.89
4.67
–
Match total
10.11
8.33
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.22
10.00
–
Opponent fouls
11.56
10.56
–
Match total
22.78
20.56
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.67
1.88
–
Opponent offsides
1.89
1.13
–
Match total
3.56
3.00
–
Possession
All games
55%
45%
–
Home games
54%
43%
–
Away games
56%
48%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Gamba Osaka
Scored · 8
13%
0%
25%
0%
12%
50%
Conceded · 16
13%
12%
12%
19%
0%
44%
V-varen Nagasaki
Scored · 11
9%
9%
18%
27%
0%
37%
Conceded · 16
19%
0%
19%
31%
6%
25%
0%
Scored first
44%
50%
Goals after 75'
36%
Scored first: Gamba Osaka 0 of 8, V-varen Nagasaki 4 of 9 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
11%44%44%
Leading 1
Level 4
Trailing 4
0.78
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 32nd 5
At half-time
33%22%44%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 4
1.22
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
5
Points won from losing positions in 8 · 5 games
1
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 1 · 5 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
