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20 Mar 2027-11:00 am
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
37%
25%
38%
V-varen Nagasaki 37%
Draw 25%
Fagiano Okayama 38%
1.4 – 1.5
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
12% chance
Most Likely Score
55%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
NAG · at home
OKA · away
1.40
Goals scored per game
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded per game
1.60
0.89x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.04x
1.04x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.02x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs JEF United Chiba (A) 1-1 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Avispa Fukuoka (A) 2-1 · 10 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
L
L
L
W
1.00
2-3-4
PPG Overall
1.60
2-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
D
W
L
1.44
4-1-4
PPG Overall
1.75
2-1-1
PPG at Home
1.20
2-0-3
PPG Away
Venue form: V-varen Nagasaki at home +33% on points per game vs Fagiano Okayama away (1.60 vs 1.20)
Rest & Schedule
160
days rest
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
161
days rest
Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
22%
40%
0%
Goals per game
3.00
2.80
3.25
Scored
1.22
1.40
1.00
Conceded
1.78
1.40
2.25
Both teams scored
67%
60%
75%
Clean sheets
11%
20%
0%
Failed to score
22%
20%
25%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
4
5
Win %
44%
50%
40%
Goals per game
2.67
2.25
3.00
Scored
1.33
1.25
1.40
Conceded
1.33
1.00
1.60
Both teams scored
78%
50%
100%
Clean sheets
22%
50%
0%
Failed to score
11%
25%
0%
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 9/9
89% 8/9
94%
–
Over 1.5
89% 8/9
78% 7/9
83%
79%
Over 2.5
56% 5/9
78% 7/9
67%
53%
Over 3.5
33% 3/9
11% 1/9
22%
31%
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
11%
–
Under 2.5
44% 4/9
22% 2/9
33%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
67% 6/9
78% 7/9
72%
59%
BTTS & win
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
22%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
44% 4/9
78% 7/9
61%
–
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 7/9
78% 7/9
78%
–
Over 1.5
33% 3/9
67% 6/9
50%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/9
22% 2/9
11%
–
BTTS
0% 0/9
67% 6/9
33%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.40 at home
1.40 away
V-varen Nagasaki scored 7 in 5 home games
Fagiano Okayama scored 7 in 5 away games
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Scored over 0.5
78% 7/9
89% 8/9
Scored over 1.5
44% 4/9
33% 3/9
Scored over 2.5
0% 0/9
11% 1/9
Failed to score
22% 2/9
11% 1/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.40 at home
1.60 away
V-varen Nagasaki conceded 7 in 5 home games
Fagiano Okayama conceded 8 in 5 away games
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
Conceded over 0.5
89% 8/9
78% 7/9
Conceded over 1.5
44% 4/9
56% 5/9
Conceded over 2.5
33% 3/9
0% 0/9
Clean sheets
11% 1/9
22% 2/9
Streaks
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
5
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
2
Lost in a row
6
Scored in a row
6
Conceded in a row
6
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Fagiano Okayama
OKA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.11
5.89
–
Corners conceded
4.89
3.78
–
Match total
9.00
9.67
9.11
Over 8.5
67% 6/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
67% 6/9
56% 5/9
–
Over 10.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.33
1.78
–
Opponent cards
1.33
1.67
–
Match total
2.67
3.44
2.91
Over 3.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
–
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
–
Shots
Shots
11.33
14.22
–
Opponent shots
14.78
10.56
–
Match total
26.11
24.78
26.86
Shots on target
On target
3.67
3.22
–
Opponent on target
4.67
3.00
–
Match total
8.33
6.22
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.00
12.11
–
Opponent fouls
10.56
10.89
–
Match total
20.56
23.00
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.88
2.25
–
Opponent offsides
1.13
2.63
–
Match total
3.00
4.88
–
Possession
All games
45%
44%
–
Home games
43%
40%
–
Away games
48%
47%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
V-varen Nagasaki
Scored · 11
9%
9%
18%
27%
0%
37%
Conceded · 16
19%
0%
19%
31%
6%
25%
Fagiano Okayama
Scored · 12
17%
17%
25%
17%
8%
16%
Conceded · 12
17%
25%
25%
0%
8%
25%
44%
Scored first
75%
36%
Goals after 75'
17%
Scored first: V-varen Nagasaki 4 of 9, Fagiano Okayama 6 of 8 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
33%22%44%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 4
1.22
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
At half-time
11%67%22%
Leading 1
Level 6
Trailing 2
1.00
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 2
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 5
1
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 4 games
0
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 6 games
6
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
