days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
71%
25%
Cerezo Osaka 71%
Draw 25%
V-varen Nagasaki 4%
1.4 – 0.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
29% chance
Most Likely Score
21%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
11%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
COS · at home
NAG · away
1.00
Goals scored per game
1.00
0.20
Goals conceded per game
2.25
0.64x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.74x
0.15x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.44x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Yokohama F. Marinos (H) 0-0 · 10 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs JEF United Chiba (A) 1-1 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
L
D
W
D
D
L
D
W
L
W
L
W
1.33
3-3-3
PPG Overall
2.20
3-2-0
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
L
L
L
W
1.00
2-3-4
PPG Overall
1.60
2-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Cerezo Osaka at home +780% on points per game vs V-varen Nagasaki away (2.20 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
201
days rest
Cerezo Osaka 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
200
days rest
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
33%
60%
0%
Goals per game
2.11
1.20
3.25
Scored
0.78
1.00
0.50
Conceded
1.33
0.20
2.75
Both teams scored
33%
20%
50%
Clean sheets
44%
80%
0%
Failed to score
44%
40%
50%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
22%
40%
0%
Goals per game
3.00
2.80
3.25
Scored
1.22
1.40
1.00
Conceded
1.78
1.40
2.25
Both teams scored
67%
60%
75%
Clean sheets
11%
20%
0%
Failed to score
22%
20%
25%
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Cerezo Osaka
COS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 7/9
100% 9/9
89%
–
Over 1.5
56% 5/9
89% 8/9
72%
79%
Over 2.5
33% 3/9
56% 5/9
44%
53%
Over 3.5
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
22%
31%
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
11%
–
Under 2.5
67% 6/9
44% 4/9
56%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
33% 3/9
67% 6/9
50%
59%
BTTS & win
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
11%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
33%
–
Cerezo Osaka
COS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
56% 5/9
78% 7/9
67%
–
Over 1.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
33%
–
Over 2.5
22% 2/9
0% 0/9
11%
–
BTTS
11% 1/9
0% 0/9
6%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.00 away
Cerezo Osaka scored 5 in 5 home games
V-varen Nagasaki scored 4 in 4 away games
Cerezo Osaka
COS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Scored over 0.5
56% 5/9
78% 7/9
Scored over 1.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
Scored over 2.5
0% 0/9
0% 0/9
Failed to score
44% 4/9
22% 2/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.25 away
Cerezo Osaka conceded 1 in 5 home games
V-varen Nagasaki conceded 9 in 4 away games
Cerezo Osaka
COS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Conceded over 0.5
56% 5/9
89% 8/9
Conceded over 1.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
Conceded over 2.5
22% 2/9
33% 3/9
Clean sheets
44% 4/9
11% 1/9
Streaks
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
5
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
Match Totals
Cerezo Osaka
COS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
League
Corners
Corners won
5.89
4.11
–
Corners conceded
6.00
4.89
–
Match total
11.89
9.00
9.11
Over 8.5
89% 8/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
78% 7/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 10.5
78% 7/9
33% 3/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.56
1.33
–
Opponent cards
0.89
1.33
–
Match total
2.44
2.67
2.91
Over 3.5
33% 3/9
22% 2/9
–
Over 4.5
22% 2/9
11% 1/9
–
Shots
Shots
12.11
11.33
–
Opponent shots
13.00
14.78
–
Match total
25.11
26.11
26.86
Shots on target
On target
3.22
3.67
–
Opponent on target
4.44
4.67
–
Match total
7.67
8.33
–
Fouls
Fouls
9.33
10.00
–
Opponent fouls
10.33
10.56
–
Match total
19.67
20.56
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.44
1.88
–
Opponent offsides
3.67
1.13
–
Match total
5.11
3.00
–
Possession
All games
56%
45%
–
Home games
55%
43%
–
Away games
58%
48%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Cerezo Osaka
Scored · 7
0%
43%
0%
14%
29%
14%
Conceded · 12
17%
8%
33%
17%
17%
8%
V-varen Nagasaki
Scored · 11
9%
9%
18%
27%
0%
37%
Conceded · 16
19%
0%
19%
31%
6%
25%
29%
Scored first
44%
14%
Goals after 75'
36%
Scored first: Cerezo Osaka 2 of 7, V-varen Nagasaki 4 of 9 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
22%44%33%
Leading 2
Level 4
Trailing 3
1.11
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 32nd 4
At half-time
33%22%44%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 4
1.22
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
4
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 5 games
1
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 3 · 5 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
