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20 Feb 2027-11:00 am
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
77%
15%
8%
FC Tokyo 77%
Draw 15%
V-varen Nagasaki 8%
2.6 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
12% chance
Most Likely Score
65%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
TOK · at home
NAG · away
1.80
Goals scored per game
1.00
1.00
Goals conceded per game
2.25
1.15x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.74x
0.74x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.44x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Urawa (H) 3-0 · 10 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs JEF United Chiba (A) 1-1 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
D
L
2.22
6-2-1
PPG Overall
2.40
4-0-1
PPG at Home
2.00
2-2-0
PPG Away
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
L
L
L
W
1.00
2-3-4
PPG Overall
1.60
2-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
Venue form: FC Tokyo at home +860% on points per game vs V-varen Nagasaki away (2.40 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
133
days rest
FC Tokyo 3-0 Urawa
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
132
days rest
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
67%
80%
50%
Goals per game
2.78
2.80
2.75
Scored
1.89
1.80
2.00
Conceded
0.89
1.00
0.75
Both teams scored
33%
20%
50%
Clean sheets
67%
80%
50%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
2.09
1.85
2.34
xGA
1.02
0.93
1.12
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
22%
40%
0%
Goals per game
3.00
2.80
3.25
Scored
1.22
1.40
1.00
Conceded
1.78
1.40
2.25
Both teams scored
67%
60%
75%
Clean sheets
11%
20%
0%
Failed to score
22%
20%
25%
xG
1.19
1.99
0.60
xGA
1.47
1.37
1.55
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
FC Tokyo
TOK
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 9/9
100% 9/9
100%
–
Over 1.5
89% 8/9
89% 8/9
89%
79%
Over 2.5
44% 4/9
56% 5/9
50%
53%
Over 3.5
22% 2/9
33% 3/9
28%
31%
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
11%
–
Under 2.5
56% 5/9
44% 4/9
50%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
33% 3/9
67% 6/9
50%
59%
BTTS & win
0% 0/9
11% 1/9
6%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
33%
–
FC Tokyo
TOK
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
44% 4/9
78% 7/9
61%
–
Over 1.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
33%
–
Over 2.5
11% 1/9
0% 0/9
6%
–
BTTS
22% 2/9
0% 0/9
11%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.80 at home
1.00 away
FC Tokyo scored 9 in 5 home games
V-varen Nagasaki scored 4 in 4 away games
FC Tokyo
TOK
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Scored over 0.5
100% 9/9
78% 7/9
Scored over 1.5
67% 6/9
44% 4/9
Scored over 2.5
22% 2/9
0% 0/9
Failed to score
0% 0/9
22% 2/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
2.25 away
FC Tokyo conceded 5 in 5 home games
V-varen Nagasaki conceded 9 in 4 away games
FC Tokyo
TOK
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Conceded over 0.5
33% 3/9
89% 8/9
Conceded over 1.5
22% 2/9
44% 4/9
Conceded over 2.5
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
Clean sheets
67% 6/9
11% 1/9
Streaks
8
Unbeaten last loss 9 games ago
9
Scored all 9 this season
4
Clean sheets in a row
4
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
5
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
Match Totals
FC Tokyo
TOK
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
League
Corners
Corners won
4.67
4.11
–
Corners conceded
4.44
4.89
–
Match total
9.11
9.00
9.11
Over 8.5
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 10.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.33
1.33
–
Opponent cards
0.78
1.33
–
Match total
2.11
2.67
2.91
Over 3.5
11% 1/9
22% 2/9
–
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
–
Shots
Shots
15.22
11.33
–
Opponent shots
10.56
14.78
–
Match total
25.78
26.11
26.86
Shots on target
On target
4.78
3.67
–
Opponent on target
2.78
4.67
–
Match total
7.56
8.33
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.33
10.00
–
Opponent fouls
9.67
10.56
–
Match total
21.00
20.56
–
Offsides
Offsides
2.00
1.88
–
Opponent offsides
1.67
1.13
–
Match total
3.67
3.00
–
Possession
All games
51%
45%
–
Home games
54%
43%
–
Away games
49%
48%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
FC Tokyo
Scored · 17
6%
0%
24%
23%
35%
12%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
25%
25%
12%
25%
V-varen Nagasaki
Scored · 11
9%
9%
18%
27%
0%
37%
Conceded · 16
19%
0%
19%
31%
6%
25%
100%
Scored first
44%
12%
Goals after 75'
36%
Scored first: FC Tokyo 9 of 9, V-varen Nagasaki 4 of 9 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
22%67%11%
Leading 2
Level 6
Trailing 1
1.33
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 52nd 12
At half-time
33%22%44%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 4
1.22
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
0
Points won from losing positions in 1 · 5 games
1
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 9 · 5 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
