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21 Oct 2026-10:00 am
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
14%
21%
65%
V-varen Nagasaki 14%
Draw 21%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65%
0.7 – 1.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
14% chance
Most Likely Score
48%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
NAG · at home
HIR · away
1.40
Goals scored per game
1.80
1.40
Goals conceded per game
0.80
0.89x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.34x
1.04x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.51x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs JEF United Chiba (A) 1-1 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Tokyo Verdy (A) 0-2 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
L
L
L
W
1.00
2-3-4
PPG Overall
1.60
2-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
D
D
W
W
2.22
6-2-1
PPG Overall
2.50
3-1-0
PPG at Home
2.00
3-1-1
PPG Away
Venue form: Sanfrecce Hiroshima away +25% on points per game vs V-varen Nagasaki at home (2.00 vs 1.60)
Rest & Schedule
10
days rest
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
1 game in 14 days · 1 in 30 days
10
days rest
Tokyo Verdy 0-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1 game in 14 days · 1 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
22%
40%
0%
Goals per game
3.00
2.80
3.25
Scored
1.22
1.40
1.00
Conceded
1.78
1.40
2.25
Both teams scored
67%
60%
75%
Clean sheets
11%
20%
0%
Failed to score
22%
20%
25%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
4
5
Win %
67%
75%
60%
Goals per game
3.11
3.75
2.60
Scored
2.44
3.25
1.80
Conceded
0.67
0.50
0.80
Both teams scored
44%
50%
40%
Clean sheets
56%
50%
60%
Failed to score
11%
0%
20%
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HIR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 9/9
89% 8/9
94%
–
Over 1.5
89% 8/9
78% 7/9
83%
79%
Over 2.5
56% 5/9
56% 5/9
56%
53%
Over 3.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
33%
31%
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
22%
–
Under 2.5
44% 4/9
44% 4/9
44%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
67% 6/9
44% 4/9
56%
59%
BTTS & win
11% 1/9
22% 2/9
17%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
44% 4/9
33% 3/9
39%
–
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HIR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 7/9
56% 5/9
67%
–
Over 1.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
33%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/9
33% 3/9
17%
–
BTTS
0% 0/9
22% 2/9
11%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.40 at home
1.80 away
V-varen Nagasaki scored 7 in 5 home games
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scored 9 in 5 away games
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HIR
Scored over 0.5
78% 7/9
89% 8/9
Scored over 1.5
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
Scored over 2.5
0% 0/9
44% 4/9
Failed to score
22% 2/9
11% 1/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.40 at home
0.80 away
V-varen Nagasaki conceded 7 in 5 home games
Sanfrecce Hiroshima conceded 4 in 5 away games
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HIR
Conceded over 0.5
89% 8/9
44% 4/9
Conceded over 1.5
44% 4/9
11% 1/9
Conceded over 2.5
33% 3/9
11% 1/9
Clean sheets
11% 1/9
56% 5/9
Streaks
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
5
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
3
Won in a row
5
Scored in a row
2
Clean sheets in a row
Match Totals
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HIR
League
Corners
Corners won
4.11
7.00
–
Corners conceded
4.89
2.22
–
Match total
9.00
9.22
9.11
Over 8.5
67% 6/9
56% 5/9
–
Over 9.5
67% 6/9
56% 5/9
–
Over 10.5
33% 3/9
44% 4/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.33
1.11
–
Opponent cards
1.33
2.11
–
Match total
2.67
3.22
2.91
Over 3.5
22% 2/9
33% 3/9
–
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
–
Shots
Shots
11.33
20.22
–
Opponent shots
14.78
7.78
–
Match total
26.11
28.00
26.86
Shots on target
On target
3.67
7.67
–
Opponent on target
4.67
2.78
–
Match total
8.33
10.44
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.00
8.11
–
Opponent fouls
10.56
11.22
–
Match total
20.56
19.33
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.88
2.33
–
Opponent offsides
1.13
1.89
–
Match total
3.00
4.22
–
Possession
All games
45%
61%
–
Home games
43%
53%
–
Away games
48%
67%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
V-varen Nagasaki
Scored · 11
9%
9%
18%
27%
0%
37%
Conceded · 16
19%
0%
19%
31%
6%
25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Scored · 22
9%
14%
13%
18%
23%
23%
Conceded · 6
17%
33%
0%
33%
0%
17%
44%
Scored first
88%
36%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: V-varen Nagasaki 4 of 9, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7 of 8 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
33%22%44%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 4
1.22
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
At half-time
44%44%11%
Leading 4
Level 4
Trailing 1
1.78
points per game
At half-time
75%
3 of 4
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 14
1
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 1 games
0
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 7 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
