|
17 Oct 2026-6:00 am
11.52
X4.46
26.05
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
76%
15%
9%
Kashima 76%
Draw 15%
V-varen Nagasaki 9%
2.5 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
12% chance
Most Likely Score
63%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
KAS · at home
NAG · away
1.75
Goals scored per game
1.00
1.00
Goals conceded per game
2.25
1.12x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.74x
0.74x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.44x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.34 away goals per game in J1 League 2026-2027
Based on 9 + 9 J1 League 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Công An Nhân Dân (A) 0-1 · 13 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs JEF United Chiba (A) 1-1 · 11 Oct 2026
Substitutes
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
1.78
5-1-3
PPG Overall
2.25
3-0-1
PPG at Home
1.40
2-1-2
PPG Away
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
L
L
L
W
1.00
2-3-4
PPG Overall
1.60
2-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Kashima at home +800% on points per game vs V-varen Nagasaki away (2.25 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
4
days rest
Công An Nhân Dân 0-1 Kashima
2 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
6
days rest
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
1 game in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
4
5
Win %
56%
75%
40%
Goals per game
3.89
2.75
4.80
Scored
2.11
1.75
2.40
Conceded
1.78
1.00
2.40
Both teams scored
67%
50%
80%
Clean sheets
22%
25%
20%
Failed to score
11%
25%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
9
5
4
Win %
22%
40%
0%
Goals per game
3.00
2.80
3.25
Scored
1.22
1.40
1.00
Conceded
1.78
1.40
2.25
Both teams scored
67%
60%
75%
Clean sheets
11%
20%
0%
Failed to score
22%
20%
25%
J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Kashima
KAS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 9/9
100% 9/9
100%
–
Over 1.5
89% 8/9
89% 8/9
89%
79%
Over 2.5
67% 6/9
56% 5/9
61%
53%
Over 3.5
44% 4/9
33% 3/9
39%
31%
Over 4.5
44% 4/9
11% 1/9
28%
–
Under 2.5
33% 3/9
44% 4/9
39%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
67% 6/9
67% 6/9
67%
59%
BTTS & win
33% 3/9
11% 1/9
22%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
67% 6/9
44% 4/9
56%
–
Kashima
KAS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
89% 8/9
78% 7/9
83%
–
Over 1.5
44% 4/9
33% 3/9
39%
–
Over 2.5
11% 1/9
0% 0/9
6%
–
BTTS
33% 3/9
0% 0/9
17%
–
% of each club's games · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games, 2.91 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.75 at home
1.00 away
Kashima scored 7 in 4 home games
V-varen Nagasaki scored 4 in 4 away games
Kashima
KAS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Scored over 0.5
89% 8/9
78% 7/9
Scored over 1.5
78% 7/9
44% 4/9
Scored over 2.5
33% 3/9
0% 0/9
Failed to score
11% 1/9
22% 2/9
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
2.25 away
Kashima conceded 4 in 4 home games
V-varen Nagasaki conceded 9 in 4 away games
Kashima
KAS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
Conceded over 0.5
78% 7/9
89% 8/9
Conceded over 1.5
56% 5/9
44% 4/9
Conceded over 2.5
33% 3/9
33% 3/9
Clean sheets
22% 2/9
11% 1/9
Streaks
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
3
Scored in a row
4
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
5
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
Match Totals
Kashima
KAS
V-varen Nagasaki
NAG
League
Corners
Corners won
3.67
4.11
–
Corners conceded
4.00
4.89
–
Match total
7.67
9.00
9.11
Over 8.5
44% 4/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
22% 2/9
67% 6/9
–
Over 10.5
11% 1/9
33% 3/9
–
Cards
Cards
1.78
1.33
–
Opponent cards
1.33
1.33
–
Match total
3.11
2.67
2.91
Over 3.5
44% 4/9
22% 2/9
–
Over 4.5
11% 1/9
11% 1/9
–
Shots
Shots
16.22
11.33
–
Opponent shots
12.33
14.78
–
Match total
28.56
26.11
26.86
Shots on target
On target
4.56
3.67
–
Opponent on target
4.44
4.67
–
Match total
9.00
8.33
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.00
10.00
–
Opponent fouls
13.00
10.56
–
Match total
24.00
20.56
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.78
1.88
–
Opponent offsides
1.67
1.13
–
Match total
3.44
3.00
–
Possession
All games
58%
45%
–
Home games
55%
43%
–
Away games
60%
48%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = J1 League 2026-2027 (90 games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Kashima
Scored · 19
5%
5%
21%
21%
16%
32%
Conceded · 16
13%
19%
12%
37%
0%
19%
V-varen Nagasaki
Scored · 11
9%
9%
18%
27%
0%
37%
Conceded · 16
19%
0%
19%
31%
6%
25%
56%
Scored first
44%
32%
Goals after 75'
36%
Scored first: Kashima 5 of 9, V-varen Nagasaki 4 of 9 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
33%33%33%
Leading 3
Level 3
Trailing 3
1.33
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 62nd 13
At half-time
33%22%44%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 4
1.22
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
4
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 5 games
1
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 6 · 5 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · J1 League 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
